A leading strategist at JPMorgan, Michael Cembalest, has forecasted that President Joe Biden will exit the 2024 presidential race. Cembalest anticipates Biden’s withdrawal due to health reasons, pinpointing a timeframe between Super Tuesday and the November election.
He also predicted that the Department of Justice or the Federal Trade Commission will win a big antitrust case against Google, Amazon, Meta, or T-Mobile; the stock prices of LyDAR (autonomous car technology companies) would collapse by 85 per cent from their peak; and that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will drag on with no ceasefire in 2024.
Biden’s poll numbers have slumped as his age and low approval ratings have become a significant issue for voters. The 81-year-old politician is trailing Trump in critical states and battlegrounds, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He has struggled to connect with voters and has been criticized for his inability to manage the economy.
According to polls, Biden trails Trump by four to ten points in Arizona and Michigan. He is trailing by a similar margin in Pennsylvania, with his support falling among young voters and minorities. However, he still has an advantage in states that still need to hold their primaries, such as New Hampshire and Vermont.
Although many Democratic Party members are urging Biden to stay in the race, the party does not have any standout alternatives for him, as California Governor Kamala Harris and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker have both rejected speculation that they will run against him. Moreover, the aging politician has little chance of getting the support of the Republican Party.
JPMorgan’s prediction is one of a number of startling predictions that the firm released in its ‘Top Ten Surprises for 2024’ on January 1. Other predictions included: broadly syndicated loan (BSL) losses will rise above private credit losses for the first time; Argentine dollarization will fail, dragging on the economy; the Russia-Ukraine war will continue with no ceasefire; and researchers will complete work on an inhaled Covid vaccine to reduce transmission dramatically.
JPMorgan’s forecast was based on research that has taken into account political, economic, and financial factors, as well as global developments. The company has a track record of making accurate predictions, especially on political events and market trends. In the past, the firm has made numerous predictions that have come to pass, such as the severing of relations between North and South Korea, which came true in June, and the global recession that began in December, which it accurately predicted in its 2021 report.
The bank’s forecasts are compiled by a team of experts, including economists and former central bankers. The company’s research is available to clients, including individual investors and institutional investors such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. The company’s investment banking business advises public and private companies, headquartered in New York City. Its assets total more than $1.7 trillion. JPMorgan’s net income in the fourth quarter of 2017 was $6.8 billion.
